CONTENTS Foreword . 5 Summary . 7 01 Aim and content . 13 1.1 Scope . 14 1.2 Use of the National Risk Analysis . 15 Risk 19 2.1 Key terms . 20 2.2 Sources of uncertainty . 21 2.3 Malicious acts . 23 Method and process . 25 02 03 NATURAL EVENTS . 31 04 Extreme weather . 33 4.1 "Storm in Inner Oslo Fjord" scenario . 36 4.2 "Long-Term Power Rationing" scenario . 40 Flooding . 45 5.1 "Flooding in Eastern Norway" scenario . 48 Landslides and avalanches . 53 6.1 "Rockslide at Åkneset with Advance Warning" scenario . 58 6.2 "Quick Clay Landslide in a City» scenario . 62 Infectious diseases .69 7.1 "Pandemic in Norway" scenario . 72 Forest and wilderness fires . 77 8.1 "Three Simultaneous Forest Fires» scenario . 80 Space weather . 85 9.1 "100-Year Solar Storm" scenario . 88 Volcanic activity . 93 10.1 Long-Term Volcanic Eruption in Iceland . 96 Earthquake new!. 103 11.1 Earthquake in a City new! . 106 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 2 NATIONAL RISK ANALYSIS 2014 DSB
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